|YTD Inventory / Shipment Report ( in Ton)
|1) Export shipments for months 7 & 8 post-2013-harvest have been at record high levels, even for a year with a relatively good harvest. Usually, months 7 & 8 have the lowest shipments of the year. Month 7 coincides with the Iranian New Year, when most businesses are on holiday. At close to 20,000 tons, exports for these two months have been twice the annual average.
2) The reasons for the abovementioned circumstances are:
A) In the first 6 months of Crop 2013, Iranian pistachio growers offered small monthly quantities of product to the market, because the revaluating Iranian Rial had lowered farmer prices by about 20% compared to the previous year; this, in the face of domestic annual inflation in excess of 20%.
B) Iranians started month 7, their new year (March 20, 2014), with the possibility of success in Iran- “5+1” discussions, resulting in the freeing of frozen petro-dollar assets. Pistachio growers panicked into assuming that the unfrozen petro-assets will cause further appreciation of the Iranian currency against the US dollar; and finally after months of resistance, yielded to this perceived market pressure, by selling some of their stocks at very low prices, so as to limit possible future loses. As a result, the ending inventory by the close of month 8 stands at only 37,400 tons, with 4 months remaining before the 2014 harvest.
3) It is interesting to note that the aforesaid surge in exports coincided with the recent recession in the three major destinations of Iranian pistachio exports, namely: Far East (China), CIS (Russia) and the EU 15 (Germany). These are three regions where the dominant currencies have all depreciated against the US Dollar in recent months. These three regions’ share of Iranian pistachio export shipments have fallen noticeably during months 7 & 8, with no immediate prospect for a reversal unless the situation in the Ukraine conflict subsides. The recent depreciation in the three currencies mentioned, should result in the reduction of imports of luxury food items such as pistachios, whether from Iran or the USA.
4) It is expected that the Euro-Ruble-Yuan currency situation will adversely affect the export of better quality, expensive pistachios. This slack is being absorbed by the Arab markets, where exceptional amount of petro-dollars are being spent. In months 7 and 8 these destinations increased their share of Iranian pistachio exports dramatically.
Note: Adjustments/Losses related to exported weight of kernels/green kernels.
Source: Export Shipments based on IRI Customs Administration data. All other figures are IPA estimtes
you can see also:
Iranian Calendar Crop Month
|Marketing Crop Month:8
||Crop Year: 2013
|Carry in from previous year||16,000|
|Total crop Estimate||170,000|
|Adjustment/ losses, Domestic||13,500|
|Adjustment/ losses, Export||13,400|