|YTD Inventory / Shipment Report ( in Ton)
|1) Exports for the first six months of this crop-year have been the lowest of the past four years. This may be due to either of the following causes: The highest US$ prices for Iranian Pistachios ever recorded with the ensuing shortfall on demand. Alternatively, restricted supply by growers, may have been the cause of the shortfall in supply. Iranian growers were reluctant to sell their crop below the previous year's prices, while they were aware that in US$ terms, prices had appreciated by 5% during the same period. It would be wise for Iranian growers to note that currency fluctuations are influenced more by political machinations than by logical ones.
2) The shortfall in export shipments mentioned in paragraph one, have been caused more by an appreciable drop in demand from price sensitive markets like China. Whereas, quality oriented markets like the EU and Russia have suffered no appreciable drop, or have even registered modest gains.
3) Normally, export shipments for the second half of the marketing season would constitute one-third of total annual exports. This should result in total annual exports of around 130,000 tons, for the 2013 crop (including shrinkage). However, the lunar month of Ramadan, which sees an upsurge in pistachio kernel consumption in the Middle East, now falls in the second half of the marketing year. Thus, expect shipments in the next six months should be appreciably greater than the one-third figure noted earlier. It would not be surprising if export shipments for the second half of this marketing year reach 50,000 tons. The Middle East and CIS countries, which generate appreciable demand in the Summer months should absorb the suggested surplus.
4) It now appears that the carryover into the next harvest would be mostly comprised of high quality, large-sized, open-inshell pistachios. This is to be expected when prices remain high for an extended period. In such circumstances low quality and inexpensive products are absorbed by the markets early in the season.
5) One special note on the EU market: Export of Iranian pistachios to Europe have been falling for some years now, whereas the quality of shipments have been improving over the same period. If the European market continues to reward quality, a brighter future for Iranian pistachio exports to Europe would not be without precedence.
you can see also:
Iranian Calendar Crop Month
|Marketing Crop Month: 6
||Crop Year: 2013
|Carry in from previous year||16,000|
|Total crop Estimate||170,000|
|Adjustment/ losses, Domestic||4,000|
|Adjustment/ losses, Export||10,500|